In the ever-evolving landscape of the NFL, the quest for parity is a constant, and the 2026 season promises to be a fascinating one. With the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears making surprising playoff runs last season, the question on everyone's mind is: Can any team replicate this success and turn their fortunes around? I think so, but it won't be easy. Here's my take on the NFL's worst-to-first candidates for 2026, ranked by their chances of winning the division after finishing last in 2025.
The Saints: A Perfect Storm
In my opinion, the New Orleans Saints are the strongest worst-to-first candidate. They check all the boxes: a weak division, an emerging quarterback, continuity on the sideline, roster upgrades, and an easy schedule. The Saints face the second-easiest schedule based on their opponents' 2025 win percentages, which could be the difference-maker in a division that's only had one winner with double-digit victories since 2022. Tyler Shough, a 2025 second-rounder, ranked ninth in EPA/play from Weeks 13-18, and he has the potential for a strong Year 2. With the arrivals of first-round receiver Tyson, experienced guard Edwards, and 1,000-yard rusher Etienne, the Saints have the makings of a successful offseason.
The Giants: A Team on the Rise
Giants fans are excited, and for good reason. New head coach John Harbaugh is an established winner, and the team has a second-year quarterback with breakout potential in Jaxson Dart. The Giants also have an improved O-line and standout skill-position weapons in receiver Malik Nabers, running back Cam Skattebo, and tight end Likely. However, injury concerns could hold them back. Dart must adjust his playing style to stay healthy long term, and Skattebo's rookie season ended prematurely due to a dislocated ankle. But with a bit of injury luck, the Giants could be on a worst-to-first path.
The Lions: A Team of Answers
Every team on this list has issues, but the Detroit Lions have answers to most of their questions. They took the NFC North in 2023 and '24, and won nine games in a down 2025. Their offensive core of Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jahmyr Gibbs remains intact, and Gibbs will likely have an even bigger role after David Montgomery's trade to Houston. The Lions' biggest unknown is their offensive play-caller, but Drew Petzing replaced fired coordinator John Morton. Defensively, the secondary is missing star defensive backs Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, but the team is still in the mix for the division crown again.
The Titans: A Work in Progress
The Tennessee Titans are banking on Cam Ward to make a significant jump. The 2025 No. 1 pick passed for 10 touchdowns with one interception in the second half of an otherwise challenging rookie season. Tennessee hired Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator and upgraded its receiving room with top-five pick Tate and 1,000-yard wideout Robinson. However, the defense is a concern, and it's unclear if defensive-minded coach Robert Saleh can fix it. The Titans aren't the division's best team, but the AFC South doesn't have an established powerhouse, and a worst-to-first path is not impossible.
The Saints: A Strong Contender
In my opinion, the Saints are the strongest worst-to-first candidate. With a weak division, an emerging quarterback, continuity on the sideline, roster upgrades, and an easy schedule, they have the makings of a successful turnaround. Tyler Shough has the potential for a strong Year 2, and the arrivals of first-round receiver Tyson, experienced guard Edwards, and 1,000-yard rusher Etienne could represent a highly successful offseason. The Saints may not even need a huge jump from 6-11, and a three-win improvement could place them atop the NFL's worst division.
